Demographics, pace of newcomers defining region's housing market

The Tri-Cities housing market is increasingly being shaped by a deeper structural reality than inventory levels, mortgage rates, affordability concerns or artificial intelligence. It's happening on three levels. An aging population is holding the market together. A younger population is sustaining demand. And newcomers are determining the market's trajectory. For now, that balance is working. A breakdown of the residents in the latest Tri-Cities census data and analysis by the National Association of Realtors Research Department and the Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors shows a housing market anchored by locals who are older homeowners but supported by a steady measure of younger people. At the same time, census data shows the region has entered what can best be described as a migration-dependent cycle where population stability and housing demand rely on attracting enough newcomers to offset natural population decline. The Tri-Cities population is heavily weighted toward Generation X and Baby Boomers. Together they account for roughly 43% of the local population. It's a concentration that has a direct impact on housing supply. These households control a large share of local homeowners' equity and wealth. Almost half of them have no mortgage. And many are locked into very low interest rates and feel no pressing financial incentive to sell. It's a dynamic that acts as a built-in housing market stabilizer. But the same factors that stabilize the market also constrain it. Inventory remains tight because so many owners are reluctant to move. On the demand side, Millennials account for about 19% of the population, and Generation Z makes up roughly 20%. Together, they form a reliable base of local renters and first-time buyers. That creates a self-reinforcing, but not balanced, housing market. Enter the effect of the new residents. The region is reliant on them to supplement the housing market because of the population issue. Simply put, local deaths have consistently outnumbered births for a couple of decades, so there's not natural population replenishment. To maintain population levels, and by extension housing demand, the region must attract enough new residents to offset the number of locals who die. The magic number is about 260 new residents a month. So far, most of the out-of-state new residents have come from Florida, North Carolina and Texas. According to NAR, 25% of recent home buyers in the Johnson City metro area are from another state. The number is 21% in the Kingsport-Bristol metro area. Their housing preferences and price tolerances are varied. Many times, they bring equity from higher-cost markets, allowing them a competitive edge over locals. That influence has been visible despite local income growth and the ongoing transfer of wealth from local parents and grandparents. But the interaction between locals and incoming residents has created a distinct market pattern. The most apparent competition is driven by Gen Z and younger Millennials. It's concentrated on the affordable market and the bottom price bands of the move-up market. At the same time, Gen X households dominate the move-up market's upper price bands, and the Boomers' influence is felt across all price bands. Some Boomers are aging in place. Others are scaling back, and an increasing number is aging out of the housing market. Overlaying that structure is the impact of newcomers, whose influence is spread across multiple price tiers. The result is a layered housing market where affordable housing is driven by local buyers. The move-up market is largely shaped by locals and new residents while the upper-tier housing is influenced by local equity, wealth transfer to locals, and new residents. Rather than shifting away from affordability, the market is increasingly organizing around it. Taken together, the Tri-Cities housing market reflects a unique balance. Its aging population provides stability and limits supply. The core of local younger residents provides a steady demand base, and new residents determine whether the market expands or contracts. In some ways, that combination explains why the region has avoided the volatility seen in larger markets. So far, home sales and prices have continued an upward arc. But without a consistent inflow of new residents, growth is no longer guaranteed. Without it, the region's population, economy, and housing market would gradually decline. ••• Amy Mitchell is the president of the Northeast Tennessee Association of Realtors.